Macroeconomic Drivers of Baseline Scenarios in Dynamic CGE models: Review and Guidelines Proposal

Jean Foure, Angel Aguiar, Ruben Bibas, Jean Chateau, Shinichiro Fujimori, Julien Lefevre, Marian Leimbach, Luis Rey-Los-Santos, Hugo Valin


For dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, long-term baseline construction is key and depends on the applied methods and the sources of projections considered. For dynamic CGE models, baseline assumptions and base data are both important determinants of results. This paper reviews the assumptions made by 24 modeling teams on baseline macroeconomic drivers, understood as factor accumulation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. We critically review the various methods, identifying state-of-the-art practices and propose simple guidelines, particularly focusing on consistency between data sources and models, which is intended to help dynamic CGE modelers build their own baselines.


Keywords: Dynamic baselines; Shared socioeconomic pathways; GDP projections; Factor accumulation.

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